Viva La Vida

People’s creditworthiness, it seems, can be seen in their looks

SCIENCE proceeds by trial and error. The successes are trumpeted. The errors are often regarded with embarrassment by subsequent generations, and locked away in attic rooms of the subject’s mansion like mad relatives in a Victorian novel. Usually, they stay there. Craniology, phrenology and eugenics, once-respectable fields of endeavour that are now regarded with a shudder, may shriek from time to time, but few sane people pay attention to them. One, however, has escaped recently, and is trying to rehabilitate itself. For years physiognomy—the idea that a person’s face is a reflection of his character—was sneered at. Now, it is making a come back.

Appearances certainly count. Women, for instance, judge men by their faces. Testosterone levels are reflected in the face, and who is seen as a one-night stand and who as a potential husband depends in part on this physical feature. Similarly, a male face betrays the owner’s underlying aggressiveness and even his business acumen. Facial beauty in either sex is also associated with higher incomes. The latest research, though, cuts to the moral quick. For Jefferson Duarte of Rice University in Houston, Texas, and his colleagues are suggesting that one of a person’s most telling moral features, his creditworthiness, can also be seen in his face.

Dr Duarte’s research was enabled by the internet. Once, if you wanted to borrow money, you had either to visit a bank or to tap a rich friend or relative. Now it is possible to do business directly with a stranger, using a peer-to-peer lending site. The needy advertise themselves, and how much they want. Those flush with cash assess potential borrowers and decide who to lend to, and at what rate of interest.

The borrowers themselves have to disclose their financial positions, credit histories, jobs and education. Often, though this is not required, they also post photographs of themselves. That means it might be possible to assess the effects of appearance on the outcome. And the process is an open auction, which means that all offers, acceptances and rejections are in the public domain.

For his research, Dr Duarte chose a site called Prosper.com. His intention was twofold: to see if physiognomy-based prejudices about creditworthiness existed and, if they did, whether they were justified. To do so he used another peer-to-peer website to subcontract the job of assessing creditworthiness to a number of ordinary people. The site in question (which is run by Amazon) is called Mechanical Turk. In this case the people it matches are those who have a task that needs doing, and those willing to perform it.

Peer review

The team recruited 25 Mechanical Turk workers and asked them to assess pictures of potential borrowers that had been posted on Prosper.com. In particular, they were asked to rate, on a scale of one to five, how trustworthy these people looked, and to estimate the percentage probability that each individual would repay a $100 loan. They were also asked to make several other assessments, such as the individual’s sex, race, age, attractiveness and obesity. The 25 results for each photograph were then averaged and analysed.

The researchers looked at 6,821 loan applications, 733 of which were successful. Their first finding was that the assessments of trustworthiness, and of likelihood to repay a loan, that were made by Mechanical Turk workers did indeed correlate with potential borrowers’ credit ratings based on their credit history. That continued to be so when the other variables, from beauty to race to obesity, were controlled for statistically. Shifty physiognomy, it seems, is independent of these things.

That shiftiness was also recognised by those whose money was actually at stake. People flagged as untrustworthy by the Mechanical Turks were less likely than others to be offered a loan at all. To have the same chance of getting one as those deemed most trustworthy they were required to pay an interest rate that was, on average, 1.82 percentage points higher, even when the effects of historical creditworthiness were statistically eliminated.

For trustworthiness, then, physiognomy works. Unfortunately, Dr Duarte’s method was not designed to find out which features label someone as trustworthy. But credit-rating agencies are no doubt working on that question even now.

이 게임이 모션은 좋은데 린스컴의 모션은 영 비슷하지 않다;;
작년에 슈퍼스타가 된 만큼 09에는 린스컴의 투구모션이 완벽 재현될 되지 않을까..

아무리 봐도 투구폼은 좀 병맛..

이번 대만 출장시 타이페이 공항에서 카오슝까지 대만의 고속전철 HSR을 이용했다.
타이페이와 카오슝은 한국으로 치면 서울 - 부산이고 2시간 정도 소요되었는데
맥스 스피드는 300km/hr이였고 상당히 깨끗한 느낌이였다.
기차를 타는건 비행기를 타는 것과 다른 로망이 항상 있는것 같아서 좋다..

타이페이 공항 인근의 HSR역 전경

타이페이-대만 편도 티켓인데 가격은 한화로 약 5만원 정도 지정석 기차도 있고 자유석 기차도 있는데 지정석은 말그대로 지정 자유석은 해당 기차안에서 아무좌석이나 앉으면 된다

자동발매기 카드도 가능~

Timetable

티켓은 자동발매기에서 쉽게 구입이 가능하다

한국과 비슷하다

플랫폼으로 들어오는 기차

KTX는 탄지 오래되서 기억이 안나는데 아마 대만처럼 전광판에 속도와 각종 정보가 Display된것 같다

플랫폼으로 들어오는 기차

일본에서 들여온 듯..신칸센과 똑같이 생겼다 이쁘긴 KTX보다 이쁜것 같다

앞뒤간격도 비교적 넓고 KTX처럼 역방향 좌석은 없더라

발을 뻗어도 편하더라..

카오슝에서 대만올때는 아침일찍 탔는데 거의 텅텅비었더라

옆에 팔받침대도 있고 나름 세심하게 신경쓴 흔적이 보인다

꼭 소장해야겠다고 생각한 다크 나이트의 블루레이!!!
디스크 비긴즈는 품절이라 구할수가 없는데 다크나이트는 교보에 소량입고되어
구입하였다.
일요일 택배가 왔다길래 보니 다크 나이트의 블루레이여서 반갑더라는..
역시 블루레의 화질은 최고!!!

일요일 도착한 다크나이트 2Disc일반판

스페셜 디스크

역시 화질은 ㅎㄷㄷ하다

좀 많이 간지나는 베일

아무래도 전용 리모콘을 구입해야 할 것 같다 불편해서

토요일 일요일 매번 아침 커피사러 가는게 귀찮아서
일단 원두를 구입했는데 처음 구입하면서 바보같이 몇스푼을 커피메이커에 넣어야하는지 물어보지도
않고 왔다-_-;;요즘 나름 똑똑하다 생각했는데 에이씨...
귀찮으면 그냥 네스프레소 머신을 구입하는것도 생각중이다 한잔 마시고나면 집중이 더 잘되는게
이것도중독인가..

우연히 세이브 파일을 복사하다가 동영상이 돌아가는 것을 알게되어 검색하여 자막입히고
보았는데 두둥...이런 젠장할 뭔가 잘못되었는지 자막이 이상하게 나온다-_-;;;
대부분의 디빅영화는 거의 돌아가는 것 같고 상당히 좋다 ㅎㅎㅎ
알고보니 꽤 오래전에 업데잇되었다고 하는데 바쁘게 살다보니 이제야 알게되었다는..
이제 PS3으로 티비에 연결해서 봐야겠다.

레드삭스로서도 과감한 도박!!!
4월말이나 되어야 출장이 가능한 스몰츠 마지막 불꽃을 멋지게 태워주시길..
근데 부디 양키스전에서는 살살-_-;;;
이로서 Braves의 한 시대는 막을 내리는 듯.

John Smoltz, who accumulated 210 victories and 154 saves for the Atlanta Braves over 21 seasons, has signed an offer sheet with the Boston Red Sox, sources told ESPN.

Smoltz will earn a $5.5 million base salary with the Red Sox, and can earn up to $5 million in an incentive clause. The incentives include $125,000 for his first day on the active roster, $500,000 if he is on the active roster on the last day of the season, and up to $4.375 million for the number of days he is on the major league roster during the season. Miscellaneous bonuses would come into play if he wins comeback player of the year, the Cy Young or other such awards.

The deal is a subject to a physical, which is scheduled for Monday.

The Braves' offer included $2 million in base salary with $8 million in incentives. The incentives included $5 million for 200 innings/30 starts, with no prorated amount if he pitched less, such as 180 innings pitched.

"I think you'll see us now turn to players who we can take chances on, players who represent potential impact players," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said. "We still have some things going on."

Epstein would not confirm the deals for Smoltz or pitcher Brad Penny, but spoke as Penny was on his way out of Boston after completing his physical.

Penny is 94-75 in nine years for the Florida Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers, going 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA in '07 and finishing third in voting for the NL Cy Young Award. But he was 5-9 with a 5.88 ERA in 15 starts last year for the Dodgers before going on the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis and bursitis.

His deal, which was first reported Dec. 28, could be announced as early as Friday.

Smoltz went to Turner Field on Thursday morning to clean out his locker.

Thursday, Braves CEO Terry McGuirk told The Atlanta Journal Constitution he was surprised Smoltz is signing with the Red Sox.

"John is a great guy. He follows his own head, and I just don't know what's going on with him right now," McGuirk said, according to the report. "We've offered less of a guarantee, but we've offered a substantial guarantee. Coming off an injury like this, we feel like it's the right thing that we should be doing.

"We've offered him a package that would get him in the $10 million range, if he were to pitch a full season and pitch well," McGuirk said, according to the AJC. "For him to walk away from that and to go to another place, I'm just shocked and surprised.

"I read today in something that his agent said the other set of incentives [from the Red Sox] were 'more attainable,'" McGuirk said, according to the report. "If John Smoltz pitches like John Smoltz pitches, I think [what we offered] is attainable. If he's not healthy, it's not going to happen."

Smoltz responded to that, with a statement released through his agent, Lonnie Cooper. "I was going to withhold comment until the announcement of my signing with a new team," Smoltz said, "but I now feel the need to clear up any misconceptions and inaccuracies about the contract negotiations between myself and the Atlanta Braves.

"There were large discrepancies between the offer from the Braves and offers from other teams.

"I have always loved the city of Atlanta, and it will always be my home. I will cherish my 21 years with Bobby Cox and all my Braves teammates. I continue to wish the Atlanta Braves nothing but success in the future."

One of the folks who sold Smoltz on Boston (and is represented by the same agent) is Celtics coach Doc Rivers. The news conference to formally introduce Smoltz will probably happen Monday, and Smoltz will likely go to the Celtics game that night.

Buster Olney is a senior baseball writer for ESPN The Magazine. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Give up? It's not in Smoltz's DNA

Why would John Smoltz, at age 41, with a surgically repaired shoulder that won't allow him to pitch until perhaps late May, leave home in Atlanta, where he has spent his entire major league career, to pitch perhaps a few months in Boston?

The answer to that question, and to all questions, is always the same with Smoltz: It's the competition, the challenge.

He is, after Cal Ripken Jr., the most competitive person that I've met in nearly 30 years of covering baseball. And, like Ripken, it's not just baseball; it's every sport, it's every game, every contest, every event, everything.

On a hot day July day at Joe Robbie Stadium in Florida many years ago, Smoltz accosted me inside the Marlins clubhouse. "I bet I've walked more times than any active pitcher," he said, urgently. "I know I have. Where can I find that? Can you find that?" Most walks by a pitcher on offense? Who would care? But Smoltz had to know; he had to be first. It was just another category for him to be the best in. He once purchased a sleep chamber so he could sleep better than anyone.

He has always been that way. It began with the accordion, then it was basketball -- he could have played at Michigan State -- and baseball; someday he'll be elected to the Hall of Fame. Ex-teammate Tom Glavine once said: "John has to win every football pool. I say, 'John, why get involved when we know you're going to win anyway? It's a donation.'"

The larger the game, the higher the prize, the better Smoltz likes it and the better he performs. That's why he is one of the best big-game pitchers of all time. That's why he went from a terrific starting pitcher to a 50-save closer, then back to a successful starter; he is the only pitcher ever to start even one game at any point following a 50-save season. "I've got big shoulders. I want it on my shoulders," he once said. "There can be some bad territory that comes with that, but I like that territory: 25 guys depending on me. I love that."

Smoltz has that fire in everything he does. There is golf; he is a scratch golfer. "Nothing is impossible to him on the golf course," Glavine said. "If he has a terrible front nine, he'll want to bet you that he'll go 3-under on the back." One summer, he played in a tournament which, of course, his team won. But there was enough daylight left for three more holes, so Smoltz raced through the clubhouse looking for someone who wanted to play.

Former Braves coach Ned Yost played. "And I won 25 bucks from Smoltzy, one of the greatest days of my life," Yost said. But Yost is a lousy golfer; how did he win? "Well, I had two other guys on my team -- they were really good -- and we were playing John three against one," Yost said. "He was taking all comers. We split the first two holes, we won the last. It was dark at the end. Smoltzy would never be on the team of three against one. Never."

Smoltz once played a good friend, also a very competitive guy, in pingpong. Smoltz won.

"I bet I can beat you playing left-handed," Smoltz said.

Then he did.

"I bet I can beat you playing from my knees," Smoltz said.

Then he did.

And then there was the Christmas party many years ago at third baseman Chipper Jones' house. Jones had a hoop in the back yard, so Smoltz challenged anyone to a game of H-O-R-S-E. Again, Yost agreed to play. So there they were, in street clothes, playing under the lights at 10:30 p.m. Yost, who is not a good basketball player, made a couple of lucky shots from the deck and another prayer from the street. "I had him beat," Yost said. "It would have been the greatest athletic feat of my career … then I went into full panic mode. He made some shots and beat me." Said Glavine: "If Ned had won, John would have stayed all night until he won. John couldn't go home on that note. John is always looking for an area where he can excel. Then he loves to tell you that he's the best."

Smoltz smiled. "I only brag about things I'm no good at," he said. "I never brag about pitching."

The competitiveness comes from Smoltz's father -- a salesman, music teacher and accordion player. "He didn't let me beat him in anything until I was much older," Smoltz said. Playing the accordion taught Smoltz "discipline. … I practiced for hours and hours and hours. From the accordion, I learned how to motivate myself by myself. I didn't need anyone or anything to motivate me. God blessed me that way. You can't teach just any kid to be like that."

Smoltz started playing the accordion when he was 4 years old. Four! Motivating himself? Discipline at 4? No 4-year-old can do anything for hours at a time.

He is intense about everything. "Fierce," former teammate Norm Charlton once said. "Typical type-A personality. When he's not pitching, he's the jokester, the clown. But when he's pitching, the happy-go-lucky look is replaced by that cold stare."

Smoltz has described himself as "not afraid to fail," adding: "I've been humbled in this game. I've experienced humility. If you want to blame me, blame me. I like the pressure. I want the pressure on me. I'm not as good when there's a mismatch, not a David-and-Goliath thing, but when there's a big-time challenge, I'm ready for it. All these games I play with myself, and with others, allows me to raise my game. And God gave me a gift to be calm in those big situations."

He is calm because he is so prepared. The 4-year-old who played the accordion is now the 41-year-old with a Hall of Fame résumé and, still, the desire to pitch and compete. He loves the challenge, and now the challenge is to bounce back from another surgery, switch to a new town and a new league, and help the Red Sox win another World Series. The odds are probably against him, but they've been against him many times. But don't bet against him.

That is one of the many things that we have learned about John Smoltz.

And, oh yes, when Smoltz asked that day in Florida about having the most walks among pitchers, he did. "I knew it," he said.

John Smoltz had won again.

Tim Kurkjian is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine. His book "Is This a Great Game, or What?" was published by St. Martin's Press and became available in paperback on May 27. Click here to order a copy.

Joining Boston, Smoltz out to prove Atlanta wrong

Thursday, January 8, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry

Posted by Buster Olney

이번엔 AC 밀란에서 뛰게된 베컴
맨유, 레알, AC밀란까지 빅리그의 명문팀에서 다뛰게 되는 셈인데
그래도 베컴은 맨유의 7번일때가 제일 멋있고 기억에 남는다
사진은 옷장정리하다 우연히 찾게된 베컴의 맨유 시절 레플..

이 노래 역시 들어보니 좋아서 버닝 중..

찾아보니 가사도ㅜㅜ
최근 열심히 듣고있는 노래 중 하나